Jay Cutler in Miami is a Losing Proposition

With “Good Jay” and “Bad Jay” behind center, Miami becomes a team that is really easy to defend. Teams just beg Jay Cutler to beat them and 40% of the time he will, but unfortunately, 60% of the time, he will not. In this business or any business for that matter, losing 60% of the time is bad for the wallet. Miami cannot continue throwing good money at “Bad Jay.”

It all starts with the dynamic of calling plays during an NFL game. It must be one crazy intense way to make a living! There's little time for deliberation with 40 seconds between stop and start. The coach's headset turns off at the 15 second mark, so now it's down to 25 seconds. Players need to get back and the QB needs settle down to hear the play, so realistically there's only about 15 seconds for the coach to call a play… 15 seconds!

With a head coach like Adam Gase calling the plays, there may be other decisions to make during that moment. The folks complaining about Gase going away from Drake after a couple negative plays, when he's averaging 4.9 yards a carry, are not thinking about the 15 seconds...

Plays are not necessarily scripted, but the scenarios likely to happen are game planned. As the coordinator, it would be impossible for Gase to make effective decisions in 15 seconds. He consequently has a list of scenario related plays on that little sheet of his. This cuts down on the time it takes to make a call. When Drake is dropped for a loss, then it's 2nd and long and the sheet has a list of plays designed for 2nd and long situations.

The success rate for 2nd or 3rd and long is not very high... The coach knows after a couple of Drake runs that the defense is sitting on his 1st down run calls. He has to change direction and go away from Drake on 1st down.

That leads us back to "Good Jay - Bad Jay."

Now Gase is going to try a few little dinks and dunks to replace his first down run. If “Good Jay” has shown up, than the offense begins to take advantage of the defense sitting on Drake. The dinky passes loosen up the linebackers and safeties that have come up to support the run. Now the run starts to pop without 9 defenders in the box and all the sudden Drake is loose in the secondary.

When “Bad Jay” shows up, now Gase has lost Drake to the defensive game plan and he can't depend on Cutler to make a couple little throws to create 2nd or 3rd and manageable... Effectively, he is now calling plays for 2nd or 3rd and long and his game plan is thrown out the window.

This is the difference between having a consistently accurate quarterback and one that is hit or miss week to week.

Every defense Miami plays is banking on "Bad Jay" showing up and Gase is hoping "Good Jay" shows up. By taking out Drake and doubling Jarvis Landry, Miami is really easy to beat when Cutler is inaccurate. Every team knows this...

Imagine Bill Belichick's frustration on the sideline! Can't you just see him thinking, "Dammit!!! Why did Good Jay have to show up against us!" Conversely, the Bills are thinking YAY, Bad Jay!

This is why it's hard to fathom why Adam Gase or the Miami front office would even consider bringing back Jay Cutler. History is the only true predictor on the future and Cutler’s legacy is “Good Jay – Bad Jay.”

Any layperson like myself has to respect Jay Cutler for even stepping on that field. This commentary is not about bashing Jay Cutler. It’s about thinking clearly and making correct decisions going forward.

There’s a thought of Jay Cutler spending more time in the off-season and becoming more acclimated with his teammates and the offense.

In finance they call this, “throwing good money after bad.” For Miami's purposes it fits well, if good money could guarantee “Good Jay,” then go for it. The problem is, history says, Miami would be throwing good money at “Bad Jay” 60% of the time. Not a sound decision.

All Adam Gase really has to do is spend some time after the season understanding why his offense was inconsistent. All of the scenarios outlined above should jump out at him.

Gase has a blind side… He believes he can fix QBs like Jay Cutler. Gase thinks he can fix Ryan Tannehill as well, but that is a discussion for another time. This is the blind side, he is overconfident and doesn’t know when he's throwing good money after a bad decision.

This is what defines great leaders, introspection… Understanding your own weaknesses and not being too stubborn to admit when you’ve made a mistake. Keeping Jay Cutler for another season is a mistake. Bringing him in was not under the circumstances, but keeping Jay Cutler next season…

Is throwing good money at “Bad Jay.”